Tag
forecasting
Production-planning notes filed under forecasting.
- 01
Croston's Method for Intermittent SKUs: Forecasting the Slow Movers Your Average Keeps Getting Wrong
Standard moving averages and exponential smoothing quietly mis-forecast your sporadic SKUs. Croston's method forecasts demand size and demand interval separately — here's how it works, when to use SBA or TSB, and how to decide which SKUs need it.
Read post - 02
Tracking Signal: Catch a Biased Forecast Before It Corrupts Your Schedule
A forecast rarely fails loudly — it drifts. Learn how the tracking signal, a cheap MAD-based trip-wire, flags persistent forecast bias so you can fix it before it inflates run sizes or triggers repeat stockouts.
Read post - 03
The Newsvendor Model: How Much to Make for a One-Shot CPG Run
Holiday packs, LTOs, and short-code items give you exactly one shot at the run quantity. The newsvendor model turns overage-vs-underage costs into a defensible batch size using one number: the critical ratio.
Read post - 04
Dynamic Lot-Sizing for Lumpy CPG Demand: When One Fixed Batch Size Stops Working
EOQ and EPQ assume steady demand. Real CPG demand is lumpy — promo spikes, seasonal resets, uneven retailer orders. Here's how lot-for-lot, POQ, Silver-Meal, and Wagner-Whitin size runs when net requirements change every week.
Read post - 05
Cycle Service Level vs. Fill Rate: The Service Metric That Sizes Your Safety Stock
Setting "95% service" means nothing until you know which 95%. Learn how cycle service level and fill rate differ, why they diverge, and how each one sizes your safety stock and run cadence.
Read post - 06
Takt Time for CPG Schedulers: Turn Demand Into a Daily Run Plan
Takt time is the customer's drumbeat — the pace demand sets, not the pace your line can hit. Here's how to calculate it, reconcile it with run-rate, and turn it into a daily run plan that actually holds fill.
Read post - 07
Rough-Cut Capacity Planning for CPG: Pressure-Test the Master Schedule Before It Hits the Floor
RCCP is the fast feasibility check that sits between master scheduling and MRP. Learn how to load your MPS against real filler, tank, and labor capacity before you promise dates you can't build.
Read post - 08
Time Fences for CPG Schedulers: Where to Freeze, Where to Flex
Schedule nervousness thrashes the floor when every late change rebuilds the week. Learn how to divide your planning horizon into frozen, slushy, and liquid zones, size the freeze to your cumulative lead time, and enforce the rules that keep the plan stable.
Read post - 09
ABC-XYZ Segmentation for CPG: Which SKUs Deserve Tight Scheduling and Safety Stock
You can't manage 400 SKUs the same way. Learn how ABC-XYZ segmentation ranks SKUs by dollar impact and demand variability, so you spend scheduling attention and safety stock where they actually pay off.
Read post - 10
Heijunka for CPG Lines: Turning Lumpy Demand Into a Schedule the Floor Can Run
Forecasting tells you how much to make. Heijunka tells you in what rhythm and sequence. Here's how production leveling smooths lumpy CPG demand into a repeatable schedule that protects fill rate and your changeover budget.
Read post - 11
Forecasting that survives contact with the floor
Tie par levels to how product actually moves — with the right window, the right buffer, and current data — and the Tuesday surprises mostly stop.
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